Charting Policy Pathways for Advanced Air Mobility Under Uncertainty: Scenario Planning in the San Francisco Bay Area
Advanced Air Mobility (AAM) encompasses emerging aviation technologies and services with the potential to reshape passenger and freight transportation, yet its future trajectory remains highly uncertain. This presentation focuses on a recent study led by the Transportation Sustainability Research Center at the University of California, Berkeley. The study included expert interviews and a multi-stakeholder scenario planning workshop conducted between 2024 and 2025 to explore alternative futures for AAM in the San Francisco Bay Area. Using a two-axis framework—regulatory environment (supportive vs. restrictive) and economic conditions (vibrant vs. stagnant)—the study developed four plausible scenarios across near-term (2025 to 2030) and longer-term (post-2030) horizons. Applying the SPELT (social, political, economic, legal, technological) framework, the project identified key drivers, constraints, and indicators shaping AAM deployment. Results suggest that regulatory clarity and macroeconomic conditions largely determine the pace and scale of AAM growth, while community acceptance, noise impacts, and infrastructure availability remain critical constraints. Cross-cutting themes included the central role of equity to political feasibility, the dual role of airports as conveners and enablers amid stranded-asset risks, and the value of flexible, modular infrastructure strategies. Overall, the findings highlight how proactive policy and planning can aid public agencies and airports in preparing for a range of plausible AAM futures, despite persistent uncertainty.
Susan Shaheen co-directs the Transportation Sustainability Research Center (TSRC) of the Institute of Transportation Studies. Shaheen’s research focuses on the adoption of emerging transportation technologies and innovative services, including advanced air mobility, carsharing (short-term vehicle access), bikesharing (short-term bicycle access), ridesharing (carpooling/vanpooling), transportation network companies (or ridehailing), and smart parking management, as well as user acceptance of alternative fuel vehicles and automation. Her work highlights social and environmental impacts, including equity in the context of transportation infrastructure and mobility services.
Relevant Expertise:
- Multimodal AAM Integration: Studying autonomous integration strategies for AAM with connected travelers and transportation modes, including trip planning integration and automated vehicles.
- Scenario Planning for regional AAM in the San Francisco Bay Area.
- AAM Policy for Autonomous Operations: Researching hybrid Part 135/Part 121 operational frameworks for both scheduled and autonomous on-demand AAM service.
This event was an Air Time by NAMS-2 Exclusive Preview of active research happening at San Francisco International Airport, therefore no recording of this seminar is available at this time. A journal article with the findings discussed in this session will be released to the public soon.
About Air Time by NAMS-2
Air Time is a series of seminars on advanced aviation hosted by Crown Innovations, Inc., in collaboration with the University of California’s CITRIS and the Banatao Institute. The seminars feature leading experts on cutting-edge research who share interesting ideas on pertinent topics and innovative methodologies. Air Time speakers include subject matter experts from UC Berkeley, Merced, Davis, and Santa Cruz. The seminars take place weekly.
Crown Innovations, Inc. is the prime contractor for the NASA Academic Mission Services 2 (NAMS-2) contract. Contact the program management at nams2pmo@crownci.com for more information or to arrange a collaboration in your field.